On 9 November 2026 bitcoin closed at $75,161, 39.8% below its record close of $124,824 on 6 October 2025; in euros it was 37.2% below, and it needs a 59.2% gain to get back. Its close of $74,968 on 8 November was the lowest since 20 August.
The fall since 6 October 2026 ran alongside the Nasdaq correction, and that is the useful question for a euro investor. We measured how deep bitcoin’s earlier crashes were and how long they lasted, whether it fell with equities, and what a small slice did to the compounded growth of a world-equity portfolio in labelled historical scenarios.
Start with today’s crypto weight across all accounts. Multiply it by an illustrative 80% fall to estimate the initial portfolio loss if other assets stay flat, then write down whether you would rebalance after a loss. The historical gains do not establish a suitable crypto allocation for you.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin's average year says little about its compounded growth. From 2014 to 2025 its calendar-year returns in euros averaged 155.6%, while its compounded return was 51.0% a year; four of the twelve years lost money.
- Falls of 74% to 83% have happened three times since 2013, and each took 2.3 to 3.1 years to recover. The current fall reached 52.0% in euros on 30 June 2026 and has not ended.
- Bitcoin has not been a crash hedge. It lost 41%, 33% and 52% in euros during the 2018, 2020 and 2022 equity falls, and fell in 64% of MSCI World's worst weeks since 2014.
- The rebalancing rule changed the outcome. From the November 2021 record bitcoin compounded 2.9% a year, yet a 5% slice reset each January lifted a world portfolio from 10.74% to 11.35% a year; never rebalanced, it gave 10.40%.
- You can size the loss and set the rule; you cannot know the future return. A current 5% slice that goes to zero costs 5% of the starting portfolio if other assets stay flat and no further money is added, and the historical gains belong to the one crypto asset that became the largest.
How far has bitcoin fallen, and is this its lowest point?
No: the lowest close of this fall so far was $58,525 on 30 June 2026, 53.1% below the October 2025 record in dollars and 52.0% below in euros. Bitcoin then rose 28.4% to 9 November. The close of 4 November, $80,488, was the highest this month; by 8 November it was 6.9% lower.
We use Coin Metrics' daily PriceUSD, which its documentation describes as the price at the end of each UTC day, computed from its reference rates. Intraday highs and lows quoted in the press differ from these closes. For euros we divide by the European Central Bank's reference rate, using Friday's rate at weekends. On 9 November bitcoin closed at €67,150, against a euro record close of €106,889 on 6 October 2025.
Fund flows moved with the price. US spot bitcoin ETFs "recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, their largest weekly withdrawals since late June," Cointelegraph reported on 9 November, citing SoSoValue. On 5 November alone, the outlet reported $430 million of outflows. These are press figures from one data provider; we have not checked them against fund filings.
How deep were bitcoin's earlier crashes, and how long did recoveries take?
Since 2013 bitcoin has fallen at least 50% from a record six times in euros, and its three deepest falls, of 74% to 83%, took 2.3 to 3.1 years to reach a new record. The current episode is the sixth. Two falls of 70.9% and 52.6%, in 2013 and 2021, recovered within eight months.
In euros: −70.9% (2013), −82.1% (2013-15), −83.0% (2017-18), −52.6% (2021), −73.6% (2021-22) and −52.0% (2025-26, open); MSCI World's worst fall since 2014 was −33.8% in 2020. Source: Coin Metrics PriceUSD, ECB EUR/USD reference rate, MSCI World index 990100; drawdown table (CSV), daily prices (CSV).
An 83% fall needs a 489% gain to recover, which is why the deepest falls dominate bitcoin's compounded growth. The recovery maths guide explains the formula, 1 / (1 − loss) − 1. From the June 2026 low, a return to the euro record needs a 108.1% gain; from the 9 November close, 59.2%.
The same gap between average and compounded growth shows in calendar years. From 2014 to 2025 bitcoin's yearly returns in euros averaged 155.6%, but €1 compounded at 51.0% a year. The difference comes from years such as 2018 (−72.3%) and 2022 (−62.1%), each followed by a large rise that first had to rebuild what was lost. MSCI World's average and compounded figures over the same years were 12.6% and 11.9%.
Did bitcoin fall with tech stocks in sell-offs?
In four of the five falls of 10% or more in MSCI World in euros since 2014, bitcoin also lost money between the same dates, and in 2018 and 2022 it lost more than twice as much. The exception was 2015-16, when bitcoin rose 57.7% while the world index fell 21.8%.
Bitcoin in euros during the world index's falls: +57.7% (2015-16), −41.1% (2018), −32.6% (2020), −51.9% (2022), −17.0% (2025); −11.0% from 6 October to 5 November 2026. Source: MSCI World index 990100, Coin Metrics PriceUSD, FRED NASDAQCOM, ECB; episode table (CSV).
The link to technology shares was clearest in 2022. From the Nasdaq Composite's record close on 19 November 2021 to its low on 28 December 2022, the Nasdaq lost 36.4% and bitcoin 71.5% in dollars, or 69.8% in euros. In the current episode, from the Nasdaq record on 6 October 2026 to its lowest close on 5 November, the Nasdaq lost 11.9%, bitcoin 11.0% in euros and MSCI World 4.2% in euros.
By 9 November bitcoin was 11.5% below its 6 October level in euros, while MSCI World was 2.2% lower. Inside each window bitcoin often fell further before the end date: its lowest point was 50.6% below the start in March 2020 and 49.6% in late 2018. The AI sell-off article covers what the same weeks did to world and S&P 500 funds.
How often did bitcoin move with world equities week by week?
Over 671 weeks since January 2014, the correlation of weekly returns between bitcoin and MSCI World in euros was 0.15, but it reached 0.45 in 2022 and 0.36 in 2025. A low average hides the years in which they moved together. Over the five years to 6 November 2026 the figure was 0.25, close to the 0.23 our diversification study found using an MSCI World ETF for the equity side.
| Year | Weekly correlation, bitcoin vs MSCI World (EUR) | Bitcoin's return in euros |
|---|
| 2018 | 0.02 | −72.3% |
| 2020 | 0.32 | +270.7% |
| 2021 | 0.29 | +73.0% |
| 2022 | 0.45 | −62.1% |
| 2023 | −0.02 | +146.6% |
| 2024 | 0.20 | +135.3% |
| 2025 | 0.36 | −17.1% |
| 2026 to 6 Nov | 0.16 | n/a |
The correlation by year (CSV) covers every year from 2014 and the weekly returns (CSV) let you recompute it.
Bad weeks tell the crash story more directly. In the 67 weeks when MSCI World lost 2.24% or more, its worst tenth, bitcoin fell in 64% of them, with a median loss of 1.39%. In the other 604 weeks it fell in 44% of them, with a median gain of 0.74%. A weakly correlated asset can still be more likely to fall when equities fall hardest.
What did a small bitcoin slice do to a euro portfolio's compounded growth?
In our historical scenarios, a 5% bitcoin slice reset each January raised the compounded growth of an MSCI World portfolio in all three multi-year windows that started on the day of a bitcoin record, while barely changing its worst fall. Started at the November 2021 record, annual growth rose from 10.74% to 11.35%, although bitcoin itself compounded only 2.9% a year in euros over those five years.
Annualised to 9 November 2026: from the December 2013 record 12.43% (world only), 17.69% (5% reset yearly), 17.83% (never rebalanced); from December 2017 12.30%, 14.25%, 12.67%; from November 2021 10.74%, 11.35%, 10.40%. Source: MSCI World index 990100, Coin Metrics PriceUSD, ECB; scenario results (CSV).
We selected bitcoin record dates before major declines as difficult entry examples. These dates were chosen with hindsight; they are not an exhaustive or unbiased test of possible start dates. The world index includes net dividends; neither side includes fund fees, trading spreads, custody costs or tax. The table adds the worst fall and bitcoin's weight at the end.
| Start date | 4 Dec 2013 | 15 Dec 2017 | 8 Nov 2021 |
|---|
| Worst fall, world only | −33.8% | −33.8% | −20.3% |
| Worst fall, 95/5 reset yearly | −33.7% | −33.7% | −20.4% |
| Worst fall, 95/5 never rebalanced | −47.1% | −33.7% | −20.5% |
| Bitcoin weight at end, never rebalanced | 48.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
The 2013 never-rebalanced case shows what a winning position does when left alone. A 5% slice grew to 48.2% of the portfolio, and the portfolio's worst fall became 47.1%, in December 2022, against 33.7% for the yearly reset. Its compounded growth was slightly higher, 17.83% against 17.69%, for a much rougher path. By 9 November 2026 almost half of it was bitcoin.
The most recent window ran the other way. From the October 2025 record to 9 November 2026, €10,000 in MSCI World became €11,804, and €11,488 with a 5% slice reset in January. That is €316 less per €10,000 over 13 months.
Why did rebalancing add growth even when bitcoin lagged?
Resetting to a fixed weight sells when bitcoin’s share has risen above target and buys when it has fallen below target. In the 2021-2026 scenario, that rule improved compounded growth. In January 2023 the reset bought bitcoin after its 62.1% fall in 2022; in January 2024 and January 2025 it sold after rises of 146.6% and 135.3%.
That benefit depends on the return path. If bitcoin keeps losing value, maintaining its target weight keeps moving money into the losing asset. The repeated-loss scenarios below show that cost. Neither past volatility nor a low average correlation establishes that rebalancing will improve future growth. The Sharpe ratio and CAGR guide explains why compounded growth, not an average return, is the measure here.
What could make the historical result misleading?
The scenarios study the crypto asset that became the largest, chosen with hindsight, and their windows overlap. Starting a five-year window at every month-end from December 2013 to October 2021 gives 95 windows, and a 5% slice reset yearly beat the world index in all 95, by 0.63 to 14.66 points a year. Those windows share most of their years, so they contain fewer than three independent five-year periods, not 95.
The downside of a small slice can be sized in advance. Take scenarios, not forecasts, with equities unchanged:
| Scenario | 1% bitcoin slice | 5% bitcoin slice |
|---|
| Bitcoin falls 50% | −0.5% | −2.5% |
| Bitcoin falls 80% | −0.8% | −4.0% |
| Bitcoin goes to zero | −1.0% | −5.0% |
| Bitcoin halves three years running, reset each year | −1.5% | −7.3% |
| Bitcoin halves three years running, never rebalanced | −0.9% | −4.4% |
The last two rows show the cost of the rule that helped in the past: resetting the weight each year keeps buying an asset that keeps falling. In a real crash equities need not stay still either; in 2022 both fell.
Costs and tax also matter more for a slice that is traded every year. At an assumed 1% a year in all-in costs on the bitcoin slice, a 5% weight costs the portfolio 0.05 points a year, small next to the effects above. Selling to rebalance in a taxable account can realise gains, which these pre-tax figures leave out.
What can you check in your own portfolio?
These checks use your own statements and the downloadable data; none of them predicts bitcoin's price.
- Find your crypto weight today, not at purchase. Divide the current value of every crypto holding, including exchange-traded notes, by your total investments. A position bought at a few percent may have grown far beyond that.
- Check overlap within crypto. Our diversification study measured a 0.83 weekly correlation between bitcoin and ether in its sample. Two coins need not provide two independent sources of protection.
- Size the loss you could absorb. Multiply your crypto weight by 80%, close to the three deepest falls since 2013, and check that the result would not force you to sell anything else.
- Write down a rebalancing rule before the next fall. Decide whether you would top up after a loss or let the weight shrink; the table above shows how the two choices diverge.
- Check whether money you need within a few years sits in it. The deepest falls took 2.3 to 3.1 years to recover in euros; the withdrawal study shows what selling during a fall does.
- Check what you pay to hold and trade it. Compare the product's annual fee, spread and any custody charge with the 0.05-point illustration above, and include tax on rebalancing gains.
Use copio’s private beta to review concentration across connected investment accounts, then reconcile the total with crypto wallet and exchange statements. Check which accounts are covered and include balances from unsupported wallets and exchanges in your own calculation. For example, €5,000 of crypto within €100,000 of investments losing 80% costs €4,000 before any losses elsewhere, rebalancing, costs or taxes.
FAQ
How far has bitcoin fallen from its record?
On 9 November 2026 bitcoin closed at $75,161, 39.8% below its record close of $124,824 on 6 October 2025, using Coin Metrics' end-of-day reference price. In euros it closed at €67,150, 37.2% below its €106,889 record of the same day, and needs a 59.2% gain to get back. Its lowest close of this fall so far was on 30 June 2026, 52.0% below the record in euros.
Does bitcoin fall when tech stocks fall?
Often, and sometimes by more. From the Nasdaq Composite's record on 19 November 2021 to its low on 28 December 2022, the Nasdaq lost 36.4% and bitcoin 71.5% in dollars. From the Nasdaq's record on 6 October 2026 to its lowest close on 5 November, the Nasdaq lost 11.9% and bitcoin 11.0% in euros, while MSCI World lost 4.2% in euros.
Is bitcoin a hedge against a stock market crash?
Not on the record since 2014. In the 67 worst weeks for MSCI World in euros, bitcoin fell in 64% of them, against 44% of the other weeks. During the 2018, 2020 and 2022 equity falls, bitcoin lost 41%, 33% and 52% in euros between the same dates.
What did a 5% bitcoin allocation do to a portfolio's growth?
In copio's historical scenarios with MSCI World in euros, a 5% slice reset each January raised compounded growth in the three multi-year windows that started at a bitcoin record. From November 2021 it lifted annual growth from 10.74% to 11.35%, although bitcoin itself compounded only 2.9% a year; never rebalanced, the slice gave 10.40%. From the October 2025 record it cost €316 per €10,000 over 13 months. These are past results before costs and tax, not forecasts.
Why does rebalancing matter so much with bitcoin?
Because bitcoin's weight moves fast. A 5% slice bought at the December 2013 record and never touched was 48% of the portfolio by 9 November 2026, and the portfolio's worst fall deepened from 33.7% to 47.1%. Resetting to 5% each January kept the worst fall at 33.7% in this scenario, but required buying more whenever bitcoin’s weight was below target.
