The 2026 oil shock: how stocks, bonds, gold and commodities did for a euro investor

From the last close before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran of 28 February to 6 November 2026, a euro investor's gold lost 18.0% and euro government bonds 3.4%, while European energy shares gained 30.2% and world equities 11.2%. Euro-area consumer prices rose an estimated 4.03% between February and October, using the monthly price-index levels, so the bonds lost about 7.2% of their purchasing power and cash 2.4%.

The useful household check is whether assets labelled defensive actually reduced losses across the whole portfolio, and whether money needed soon remained available. The winning sector in this episode is not a prescription for the next one.

Oil went through two full swings. Brent spot nearly doubled to 7 April, halved by 2 July, doubled again by 2 October and was still 50.1% above its pre-war level on 3 November. This sequel to our asset-class crash study measures each holding in euros through those phases.

Key takeaways

1. After inflation, the assets that grew were those tied to oil, plus global equities. European energy shares gained 25.1% after inflation and MSCI World 6.9%; cash lost 2.4%, euro government bonds 7.2% and gold 21.2%.
2. Gold fell more deeply than world equities; government bonds also lost value. MSCI World's worst fall in the period was 6.4%, from 2 to 27 March; gold fell 23.3% from 2 March to 16 July and euro government bonds 5.5% by 1 October.
3. Bonds and gold moved with shares, and against oil. Over 35 weeks, euro government bonds had a correlation of minus 0.74 with Brent and plus 0.49 with MSCI World; only energy shares and commodities moved against MSCI World.
4. Bought at the first oil peak, an energy position lost 15.4% in under three months. From 7 April to 2 July European energy shares fell while MSCI World rose 13.3%; bought before the war, the same index was up 30.2% on 6 November.
5. Check defensive holdings together and keep near-term spending visible. Brent spot moved by +93.8%, −50.4% and +97.7% between four turning points in seven months.

What happened to the oil price between February and November 2026?

Brent spot went from $71.32 a barrel on 27 February to $138.21 on 7 April, fell to $68.53 on 2 July, climbed to $135.51 on 2 October and stood at $107.03 on 3 November. These are the US Energy Information Administration's daily spot prices, published by FRED.

The ECB's staff projections date the start to "the US-Israeli military action against Iran on 28 February". The 7 April peak came the day before a ceasefire announcement, which the ECB's Economic Bulletin 4/2026 dates to 8 April. Oil fell most after a US-Iran memorandum in mid-June, which "subsequently broke down in early July amid renewed hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz", according to Economic Bulletin 5/2026.

In the first week of November Brent spot fell 10.9%, from $120.15 on 30 October to $107.03 on 3 November. Prices quoted in the news often refer to Brent futures contracts; this article uses the EIA spot series throughout, so its levels will not match every headline. For a euro investor, the euro's 5.4% fall against the dollar over the period made oil dearer still: in euros, Brent spot was 58.5% above its pre-war level on 3 November.

Which holdings protected a euro investor, and which fell?

Over the whole period, European energy shares (+30.2%), broad commodities (+20.2%), world energy shares (+18.1%) and MSCI World (+11.2%) rose in euros; gold (−18.0%), euro government bonds (−3.4%) and inflation-linked bonds (−2.0%) fell. MSCI Europe gained 4.7% and euro cash, compounded at the ECB's €STR, 1.5%.

27 February to 6 November 2026, in euros, nominal / after inflation: energy shares Europe +30.15% / +25.11%, commodities +20.18% / +15.52%, MSCI World +11.21% / +6.90%, euro government bonds −3.45% / −7.19%, gold −18.01% / −21.19%. Source: MSCI World index 990100, iShares fund data, ECB, Eurostat; returns by phase (CSV), daily levels (CSV).

Gold lost more than in any of the four crisis windows of our gold study. Measured on month-end prices in euros, as in that study, it fell 20.8% from February to October 2026, against at most 13.3% in 2000, 2008, 2020 and 2022. In dollars the LBMA gold price lost 22.5% over the period; the weaker euro softened the loss to 18.0% for a euro investor. Gold peaked on 2 March, the first trading day after the strikes, and reached its low on 16 July.

MSCI World's endpoint includes the AI sell-off of early November; the index was 2.6% lower on 6 November than on 2 October. The equity falls were shallow by comparison. MSCI World fell 6.4% at worst, from 2 to 27 March, and MSCI Europe 9.4% from 27 February to 20 March.

What did the shock do to returns after inflation?

Euro-area consumer prices rose 4.03% between February and October 2026, enough to erase the nominal return of cash and to turn the bond losses into real losses of 5.8% to 7.2%. Annual inflation went from 1.9% in February 2026 to 4.0% in October, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate of 4 November; energy prices went from 3.1% below their year-earlier level to 20.8% above it.

The 4.03% cumulative price rise used to deflate returns comes separately from the February and October index levels, 100.71 and 104.77. It is not the October year-on-year inflation rate.

Inflation excluding energy and food moved only from 2.4% to 2.5% over the same months. In March, ECB staff projected average inflation of 2.6% for 2026; the ECB's 29 October statement noted that "Diesel and petrol prices reached new peaks in September". The deposit rate went from 2.00% to 2.25% on 17 June and to 2.50% on 16 September.

Cash at €STR earned 1.5% while prices rose about 4%, a real loss of 2.4%. The cash and inflation study covers how deposit rates pass through.

To regain their 27 February purchasing power, euro government bonds need a 7.7% gain in real terms and gold 26.9%, on the formula from our recovery maths guide. The deflator compares monthly average price indices with daily market closes, ends in October rather than November and uses a provisional October estimate. These real returns are approximate purchasing-power comparisons, not precise inflation-adjusted returns between the trading dates.

How did bonds and gold behave when oil spiked?

They tended to fall in the weeks oil rose and to move with shares: over 35 weeks, euro government bonds had a correlation of minus 0.74 with Brent and plus 0.49 with MSCI World; gold minus 0.29 and plus 0.55. Energy shares and commodities were the only holdings measured here whose weekly returns moved against MSCI World.

Weekly correlation with Brent / with MSCI World: commodities 0.78 / −0.25, European energy shares 0.72 / −0.58, gold −0.29 / 0.55, inflation-linked bonds −0.46 / 0.39, euro government bonds −0.74 / 0.49. Source: EIA via FRED, MSCI, iShares fund data; weekly returns (CSV).

The bond mechanism is the one of 2022, explained in why bonds protected in 2008 but failed in 2022. When an oil shock raises expected inflation and policy rates, required yields rise and fixed payments are worth less. The ten-year AAA euro-area yield went from 2.73% on 27 February to 3.63% on 28 September and 3.29% on 6 November; the two-year yield from 1.98% to 2.93%.

Inflation-linked bonds lost less than nominal bonds, 2.0% against 3.4%, but still lost. Their principal rises with prices, while their value also falls when real yields rise; our inflation-linked bond guide sets out that trade-off. A 35-week correlation from one episode describes what happened here and is too short to estimate a stable relationship.

What did an energy hedge cost when oil fell back?

It depended on when it was bought: from the 7 April oil peak to the 2 July low, European energy shares lost 15.4% and broad commodities 8.7% in euros, while MSCI World gained 13.3%. Brent spot fell 50.4% in dollars over the same weeks.

27 February to 7 April / 7 April to 2 July 2026, in euros: European energy shares +21.90% / −15.35%, commodities +16.16% / −8.68%, MSCI World −2.90% / +13.34%, euro government bonds −3.17% / +2.14%, gold −9.80% / −9.22%. Source: EIA via FRED, MSCI, iShares fund data; returns by phase (CSV).

An investor who bought European energy shares on 7 April was still up only 6.8% on 6 November, against 14.5% for MSCI World from the same day. One who held them from before the war was up 30.2%. Energy shares moved less than oil in both directions: up 21.9% when Brent spot rose 93.8% in dollars, down 15.4% when it fell 50.4%.

The link loosened late in the period. From 2 October to 3 November, Brent spot in euros fell 20.7%, while European energy shares gained 3.6% from 2 October to 6 November. In the first week of November they did fall, by 8.3% from their 30 October high. Gold offered no offset in either phase, losing 9.8% in the spike and 9.2% in the unwind.

What would a simple mix have done?

In a hypothetical mix of 60% MSCI World and 40% euro government bonds, bought on 27 February and never rebalanced, €100 became €105.34 by 6 November, 1.3% more after inflation, with a worst fall of 5.1%. This is an illustration on index returns before costs and taxes, not a suggested allocation.

Replacing 10 points of MSCI World with European energy shares gives €107.24, 3.1% after inflation, with a worst fall of 2.8%. Replacing them with gold gives €102.42, a 1.5% loss after inflation, with a worst fall of 5.8%. The scenario table (CSV) lists the three mixes.

The energy sleeve helped because this period was an oil shock, and the mix bought it before the war. Over periods without one, such a sleeve carries the concentration of a single sector, which these eight months do not measure. Our 1970s study follows a 60/40 portfolio through a decade of inflation, a longer test of the same question.

For household wealth, the relevant outcome is compounded value after inflation, costs and taxes. The figures above adjust for inflation only; fund costs, trading costs and taxes would reduce them further. Annualising eight months would overstate the precision, and one episode cannot estimate a mix's expected log growth: that needs a distribution of future returns, including periods without an oil shock.

What can you check in your own portfolio?

These checks use your statements and the issuers' factsheets; none of them depends on an oil forecast.

1. List what each holding needs to do well. Rising yields put pressure on long-dated bond prices, although coupons can offset some losses; energy shares depend on company profits as well as fuel prices; gold fell both in the first oil spike of 2026 and in its unwind.
2. Compare your own returns since 27 February with inflation. Compare your broker’s time-weighted return with the estimated 4.03% rise in euro-area consumer prices from February to October, allowing for the different observation dates; a holding that kept its nominal value still lost purchasing power.
3. Check whether your defensive holdings fell in the same weeks as your shares. Weekly returns from your broker are enough to see whether the bond or gold line moved with the equity line in March and September 2026.
4. Note the date and price at which any hedge was bought. The same energy index returned 30.2% or 6.8% to 6 November, depending on whether it was bought before the war or at the April peak.
5. Name the spending due in the next two years. A real loss of 5.8% to 7.2% on a bond line, as in 2026, matters most if that line was meant to pay for it.

In copio’s private beta, start with the allocation and correlation views to identify what you are relying on for protection, then examine available historical crash replays. Compare the losses with your spending reserve outside the backtest. This article’s 2026 oil-shock calculation is a downloadable study; it does not establish that this exact episode is available as an app replay.